A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
