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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the largest improvement is handed the prize. However, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest shock.

But the current field is distinctly different. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and longtime also-rans rising collectively. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still